CROWDED PROBABILITIES IN TESTS FOR THE PRESENCE OF INFECTION

Dr. Margarita Lambova, Assoc. Prof., Dr. Vanya Stoyanova, Assist. Prof.
University of Economics – Varna

https://doi.org/10.53656/math2021-6-1-kri

Absract. In the presentation, problems have been addressed in perceptionand popular delusions in the interpretation of information related to the level of confidence / uncertainty of tests by which the presence or absence of contamination is verified. The theoretical essence of the probabilities of a false positive and false negative result, as well as the level of confidence / uncertainty of the test results and on this basis there are assumptions about the perception of such information and possible misconceptions in its interpretation by society. Assumptions made are checked on the information based on a non-reporting survey. The results obtained reveal user difficulties in rationalizing and interpreting the data provided as well as when detecting logical links characteristic of such information.
Keywords: conditional probabilities; Bayes theorem; level of confidence; test for the presence of infection

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